Buy Low/Sell High/Stay Put: A Fantasy Baseball Breakdown
A weekly series covering one player for each category and how to navigate rostering them going forward
So the brainchild of this article was me wanting to just do a buy low article. Something to help people key in on specific players with the trade deadline coming up in a few weeks. Then I figured…why not do a sell high article instead? And finally I landed on this. An article that encompasses all three aspects of navigating what to do with the players you roster. Especially if you’re constantly trying to maximize the value of your roster.
I’m going to do my best to not highlight the super obvious guys. Nobody stands to gain any extra insight from me telling them to keep Ronald Acuña Jr. Everyone already knows that. I’m going to cover the guys people may be considering moving or making a move for. Each week I’ll cover one for each category.
If there are any players you have questions about or think should be covered, let me know!
Buy Low
Max Muncy (2B/3B - LAD)
It may seem odd to start this off with an 18 homer guy. Let’s be honest, though, with him coming off yet another stint on the IL this is the lowest his value has been and probably will be. Now is the perfect time to buy the multi-position slugger.
Muncy had a statistically underachieving 2022 season thanks in part to his elbow injury he sustained before the season. With his refusal to get surgery, it zapped Muncy’s power leading to just nine home runs in his first 73 games. His elbow steadily improved into the second half of the season and since then he’s been on a roll. That’s where the value comes in.
In Muncy’s last 113 games dating back to the beginning of last August he’s hit 30 home runs with an .826 OPS. His barrel rate (15.6%), hard hit rate (49.3%), and average exit velocity (91.4 MPH) are all on par with pre injury Muncy.
His batting average is stuck below the Mendoza line once again this season and that may be who Muncy is now so you need to keep that in mind. What you’re trading for the is the power. He’s turned himself exclusively into a pull hitting fly ball hitter. Both his pull rate (55%) and fly ball rate (50.7%) are career highs. So while that doesn’t do wonders for the batting average, it certainly helps power hitters like Muncy hit nukes.
With Muncy freshly activated from the IL, the time is now. He’s still on a 40+ home run pace and it’s likely many current fantasy owners are frustrated with his batting average and lack of availability. His walk rate makes him viable in points leagues, but category and roto leagues are where he shines with that power. It’s not everyday you can get a discount on a guy likely to end the year top-10 in home runs.
Sell High
Lane Thomas (OF - WAS)
The premise of selling high isn’t necessarily “this person is going to suck from this point on, so unload them while you can!”. Many times it’s about trading an overachieving or surprising player at their peak to maximize your return. Thomas is one of those guys.
It’s hard to argue against Thomas being one of the biggest surprises of 2023. He’s made legitimate strides in his quality of contact that have led to big improvements on the offensive end. His 9.4% barrel rate and 42.2% hard hit rate are already vastly improved compared to 2022. He’s leaned much more into being a pull hitter as well, pulling the ball 46.2% of the time. Guys who hit majority pulled fly balls almost always see their home run numbers improve.
There are reasons for concern, though. His 88.6 MPH average exit velocity is in just the 36th percentile. He has yet to hit a ball 110+ MPH and he‘s overperforming his expected stats by quite a bit. His .257 xBA is 42 points lower than his current BA. His xSLG is 90 points lower than his current SLG% and his .321 xwOBA is in just the 43rd percentile.
In points leagues in particular, Thomas is performing as a top-15 at the position player. The likely scenario is he ends the year as more of a top-35 at the position player. This is why it’s important to sell. Maximize what you can get in return for Thomas and don’t let the impending regression hurt your team. Overall he is still in line for an impressive season, his best days this season are just behind him.
Stay Put
Luis Robert (OF - CWS)
Telling you to stay put on a very injury prone player seems counter intuitive. Especially one who’s having a career best season to this point. I get it. The difference between Robert and say…Lane Thomas, is the fact that despite his career high pace, this is exactly who Luis Robert was supposed to be.
The season he’s put together so far should surprise nobody who’s even slightly paid attention to Robert’s career. A top prospect in 2019/2020, he came up as a guy touted for his impressive combination of power and speed. In his first 124 career games he had 30 doubles, 24 home runs and 15 stolen bases. Injuries derailed his 2022 season but he still managed to hit .284 with 30 XBH and 11 stolen bases in just 98 games.
In 2023, outside of just being healthy and available, Robert has shown improvements at the plate. His 15.2% barrel rate is a career high, his .515 xSLG is in the 89th percentile and his .350 xwOBA is in the 73rd percentile. There are concerns about his whiff rate increasing and him struggling a bit against offspeed pitches, but he’s absolutely destroying fastballs. Combine that with a career high 43.4% flyball rate and you shouldn’t be surprised by his 42 XBH in 78 games.
With Robert, you’re witnessing someone realizing their full potential rather than someone having a surprise breakout. He needs to avoid injury, but don’t trade him. Players like this win you fantasy championships.